Score Three Candidate Markets Before a Launch Date Gets Set
Objective: Given raw signals for 3 candidate markets, score each on the lesson's four factors (demand signal, unit economics fit, channel availability, regulatory/payment friction) and rank them to pick the lowest-friction beachhead.
You're on the growth team at Sula Vineyards, the Nashik-based, NSE-listed wine company, evaluating a direct-to-consumer export push. Leadership wants a market picked by next week's board update, and the CEO's early favorite is the biggest market on the list, not necessarily the best-scoring one.
Score UK, Singapore, and Germany on the four factors using the data given, rank them, and explain why the top-ranked market is not the biggest one.
Before you start
What you'll need
Free path (everything below is enough to finish)
Free, sorting and SUM formulas are all the math this needs
The process
1 step
Step 01 of 01
The lesson's four-factor framework scores demand signal, unit economics fit, channel availability, and regulatory/payment friction, then ranks; the highest score is rarely the biggest market.
UK: high organic demand, strong purchasing power, mature wine e-commerce channels, straightforward alcohol-import licensing. Singapore: moderate demand, high purchasing power, thin direct-to-consumer wine e-commerce, complex alcohol duty structure. Germany: highest raw market size, but low organic demand signal and a strict alcohol-advertising regulatory regime. Which market ranks first?
Procedure
- List UK, Singapore, Germany as rows, the 4 factors as columns
- Score each cell 1-5 using the scenario data (5 = strongest fit)
- Sum each row for a total score
- Sort descending, the top row is the recommended beachhead
Sula Export Market Scorecard
Demand UnitEcon Channel Regulatory Total
UK 5 4 5 4 18
Singapore 3 5 2 3 13
Germany 2 4 3 2 11
Recommendation: UK, despite Germany having the larger raw market size.Healthy
UK wins on total score despite not being the biggest market, exactly the pattern the lesson describes
Unhealthy
Picking Germany because it's the biggest wine market in Europe, ignoring the low demand signal and regulatory friction
What this means
Raw market size is not on the scorecard for a reason, it doesn't predict how many things have to be invented from scratch to launch there.
So what do I do about it?
| Symptom | Action | Effort |
|---|---|---|
| Leadership wants to pick the biggest market by default | Present the scorecard total alongside market size, so the tradeoff is explicit, not hidden | 30 min |
Final deliverable
A completed 3-market scorecard with a one-paragraph recommendation memo for the board update.
See a reference example
Sula Export Recommendation Memo We scored UK, Singapore, and Germany on demand signal, unit economics fit, channel availability, and regulatory friction. UK ranks first (18/20) despite Germany having the larger addressable wine market, because Germany's low organic demand signal and strict alcohol-advertising rules mean more has to be built from scratch before we can launch. Singapore's thin direct-to-consumer wine channel is the main drag on its score. Recommend UK as the beachhead market, revisit Germany once we have UK operating cash flow to fund the regulatory lift.
Success criteria
You're done when you can:
- All 3 markets scored on all 4 factors with a justified number, not a guess
- Ranking is explicit and matches the summed scores
- Memo explains why the top-ranked market isn't the biggest one